• Karol Chwedczuk-Szulc
  University of Wrocław
• Andrzej Polus
  University of Wrocław

Social Constructivism as Forecasting Matrix. Collective Habitus in International Relations

Abstract:

Social constructivism is not among the most popular theoretical approaches used in forecasting in International Relations. Th e article argues that constructivism suff ers from the same limitations as any other paradigm in IR, therefore, there is no reason to exclude this theory from forecasting eff ort. In this paper, social constructivism is perceived to off er a new conceptual framework for sound and robust projections of the future. Th e core of our concept is constituted by the term of collective habitus. Habitus is a relatively stable, yet mutable social structure that can enable deliberations about future. It is based on a long-term history study programme of the School of Annales, as we identify long lasting habits-like patterns of behaviours among IR actors.

DOI: 10.2478/ppsr-2020-0001

Full text: https://content.sciendo.com/downloadpdf/journals/ppsr/8/1/article-p1.xml

Keywords: collective habitus, national habitus, forecasting, social constructivism, future’s projec-tion, zones of plausibility